Tuesday's Portland high of 90 degrees or higher became the 16th day this year, which matches my summer forecast of being the hottest since the record summer of 2009.

Current forecast outlooks call for above-normal temperatures and drier than normal weather this coming September, October and November.

The map from NOAA shows the Northwest projection of a warm fall, as indicated by the tan color.

NOAA is still projecting a developing El Nino this fall, but confidence of a moderate or strong El Nino phase is eroding. A weak El Nino would give little confidence of what to expect this winter season.

If neutral conditions hold, in terms of Pacific equatorial water temperatures, the possibility of an extreme weather event this winter would increase. Remember, the valley is due for a large windstorm, in terms of repeat statistics of such an event.

Forecast confidence for the winter season may not increase until early November. At that time, forecasters should know if Pacific water temperatures are warming or holding close to season averages.

Meteorologist Rod Hill, follow me @

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